Showing posts with label armstrong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label armstrong. Show all posts

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Tu quoque, George, fili mi?

Rumor has it that big George Hincapie has joined the crowd accusing Lance of doping use. At least that is what the media are reporting. George for his part started tweeting like, well a twittering bird, to deny or at least contain these rumors.

George's first tweet, now 16 hours ago, read, "I can confirm to you I never spoke with "60 Minutes." I have no idea where they got their information." It is so nicely written with quotes and all, one might suspect that his PR guy did the tweeting.

The first tweet was soon followed by a second one, "As I've said in the past, I continue to be disappointed that people are talking about the past in cycling instead of the future."

And then, "As for the substance of anything in the "60 Minutes" story, I cannot comment on anything relating to the ongoing investigation." Now that one was written by his lawyer for sure.

Happier days in the past
Alberto Contador meanwhile continued to solidify his lead in the Giro. He was second in another mountain stage today. He rode to the top with Nibali, who is seen as his main competitor, although he dropped the Italian in the last 100 meters. Igor Anton (Euskatel) won de stage up the Zoncolan. He arrived solo at the top.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Compliments and accusations

Sporza called Chris Horner an oldster grabbing power, while Cipollini said Cavendish didn't care about the sport and was fat. The sprinters left the Giro yesterday leaving the race to climbers like Contador, who may well win only to see his victory taken away by TAS in June.

The silliness of the whole doping hoopla becomes more apparent when you hear what Ventoso had to say about Mark Cavendish. The Spaniard accused Cavendish of hanging on the team car to get over the hills, thereby beating the time-cutoff for a hilly stage so he could win the next one. If true it would be a most clear example of cheating and one that had a direct and tangible benefit. So is Cavendish going to be investigated and if found guilty suspended for two years? Don't hold your breath!

The truth is that riders hang off team cars all the time. They have all sorts of tricks up their sleeves and cheating is an integral part of the sport. I am not condoning it or saying that it is OK, but face it, the whole doping is cheating argument holds little water. If you think it is cheating then treat it like cheating.

The reality is that outright cheating is barely looked at, let alone punished so why be so punitive about doping? Clearly something else is going on here.

But the doping game is far from ending. Not only will TAS most likely clear the way for the soon-to-be-oldest winner of the Tour, but former Armstrong team-mate Tyler Hamilton is going on Sixty Minutes this weekend saying he saw Lance inject EPO.

Hamilton

And that brings up another point of how silly this whole matter has become.

St.Lance battling the dope monster

It is now clear that every Armstrong team-mate and competitor was using what everyone considers effective doping. Entire teams were doping, including all of Lance's team. Most have admitted as much in public. Most were suspended or had their careers destroyed because of it. Yet we are to believe that Lance is somehow innocent? Statistically speaking that seems extremely unlikely. Either the stuff does not work, so why bother, or Lance is an alien and a saint too?

Now you may say that there are lies, damn lies and statistics and maybe there is some truth to that. And you could say that Lance was never found positive so you cannot accuse him. But statistics has become acceptable to prove doping. The biological passport is nothing more than statistics and it has indeed been used to suspend and punish riders. So yes, it is acceptable to use statistics, at least to WADA and UCI. We are getting awfully close to 1984 here. Maybe someone should put an end to all this?

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Goats and pirates

Bike racing in the Arab countries may not have many spectators but that does not mean there isn't excitement. Pirates in cars try to mingle with the pack and there is always an infamous goat crossing that can lay waste to any group of riders lacking adequate cyclocross skills. All that meant nothing today to Theo Bos, who won his second stage in the Tour of Oman by outsprinting Daniele Bennati and overall leader Matthew Goss.

Tour of Oman

With Contador on the loose, Lance confirmed again that he is for sure retiring, prompting many ceremonies, tributes, and other press releases honoring the seven time Tour de France winner. Like many others before him, Lance will devote the rest of his existence to doing good works. And speaking of good works, Bill Gates was interviewed on Charlie Rose the other night and explained the reasoning behind his foundation's vaccination program. Gates said that preventing childhood deaths is one of the best ways to insure people have fewer children. "The only proven way," he stated. He then went on to explain how his Foundation's programs will help contain the population explosion that many, including Bill think is the underlying cause of all our ills.

Ivan Basso on the other hand is ready to meet both challenges. First he dared Alberto by training in the Spanish territory of the Canary Islands, and now he is seen on social media, feeding the next generation. Notice him mumbling, "bring it on." Basso will make his Italian debut this coming Saturday in Ligueglia, a town not too far from San Remo.

Basso, not worried about what the future may bring
Meanwhile the horrible weather continues unabated with hail storms stopping traffic on major Bay Area freeways. But as of yesterday and thanks to a Nature article we now learn that it isn't the weather gods who are to blame, but human activity and greenhouse gases. This is the first major study linking greenhouse gases to weather as opposed to climate. The distinction is rather important.

Finally, an IBM supercomputer soundly beat the best human opponents in Jeopardy, showing that the end of human domination is near. But first the computer will have to take a few flights apparently. According to a Cornell University science professor, Watson -that is the computer's maiden name- has one fundamental limitation. He (or she, or it?) has never gotten stuck in weather at Chicago's O'Hare airport.

The attentive reader will quickly point out that thanks to our never ending appetite for SUV's and oil, Watson will soon have ample opportunity to experience weather-related delays, and not just at O'Hare airport.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Tour of California

According to the local media, the Tour of California organization has dropped a provision that excluded riders who are subject to a pending doping investigation, prompting speculation that Lance Armstrong may enter the race. The Texan, who is under investigation by US authorities for activities relating to his Postal Service years, has quietly withdrawn from cycling after the Tour Down Under where he faced a barrage of doping-related questioning. A re-appearance with a more upbeat exit cannot be ruled out.

Lance had earlier canceled plans to race triathlon on the Ironman circuit. He was due to start Ironman New Zealand after the Tour Down Under, in order to secure a spot for the world championships in Kona, HI in October. He had been training on the big island last year and even challenged Chris Lieto, former second place finisher to an informal time trial there. He must have figured if I can beat second place Chris on the bike, I will win for sure.

However, after last year's stunning win by Chris McCormack Lance must have realized that his chances were close to non-existent. Lance, as we all know, does not enter races unless he thinks he can win them.



Ironman races are decided on the run portion of the event. Even if Lance were to ride a stunning TT and gain 20 minutes, chances are a runner like Chris McCormack or Craig Alexander would find him rather easily in the marathon. Winning times for that segment have now dropped well below the 3 hr mark. Based on Lance's previous marathon results it would be surprising if he could run a 3 hr marathon in Ironman. So there is a very real chance that -like Chris- he would just make the top 10- a nightmare of epic proportions for a seven time Tour de France winner.

A further interesting note regarding the Tour of California is that the AEG organization will hand over doping investigations to WADA.  USADA apparently pushed for testing to be done by an independent agency, and not UCI and its potential conflict of interest.

WADA would like to begin testing next week for the May 15-22 race and AEG has asked the teams for a list of 12 riders by the weekend. Even so, AEG does not want to exclude riders who are not on the list from entering at the last moment. If Lance were to stage such a last minute entry nobody would have the guts to stop him.

But on to the interesting question of early testing. WADA thinks doping will happen in the months leading up to event. Surely longer term remedies such as growth hormone, anabolic steroids, etc. take several weeks to show an effect and that effect lasts for months. These compounds work mainly through building muscle and promoting muscle adaptations that do not happen overnight.

Last year riders were first tested 10 days before the start of the race. Given that the event lasts for a week that left the door wide open for most forms of doping, including what is probably the most effective form of doping, blood doping in all its incarnations.

Blood doping relies on extra red blood cells to carry oxygen. Since performance is largely limited by cardiovascular performance -which in turn means the capacity to deliver oxygen- blood doping is probably the most effective form of doping. I say probably because my background in drug development tells me that the only way to be sure a drug is efficacious is to see how it performs in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. To the best of my knowledge no such testing has ever happened. So even though blood doping makes total sense, and should enhance performance, we won't know unless we test it.

In any case, blood doping is not only (rumored to be) most efficacious, it is also virtually undetectable if done properly. The best way to catch blood doping is to find the athlete in flagrante delicto and the chances of that happening are insignificant to say the least.

Red blood cells survive for a long time. The value one finds in the literature is 120 days, or nearly four months. Of course there are cells of all ages in a random sample so one cannot expect the cells gathered to last for that long when re-infused later. Furthermore, storage does affect life expectancy and even properly stored cells will not survive as long as they would in vivo. But in all likelihood a transfusion 10 days out will guarantee extra cells for the 20 days needed and then some. Such an autologous transfusion would be undetectable.

There is a lot of talk about biological passports and even dating red cells, but as a practical matter these methods are not going to achieve much. If statistical methods gain traction it would open a whole new can of worms, and one lawyers would love to tackle. Then lawyers would indeed wreck the sport as McQuaid so miraculously predicted.

EPO is even better when there is extra time. rhEPO's half life is less than half a day (4-13 hrs) so it is undetectable after just a day. But its effect lasts for months as new cells will be formed that will easily survive for 3-4 months. As you can see, this is a no-win situation.

The irony is that there is a very simple and very effective way to stop blood doping. Simply set a limit on the hematocrit. Unfortunately that means switching to a method that favors science and abandons the magic-inspired forbidden substances rules that WADA holds so dear. If you think WADA likes science think again.

WADA prefers to use the latest science to uphold a pre-scientific set of beliefs. This is no different from religious groups using science to enforce religion as described in the Feynman incident where orthodox Jews asked him whether nuclear energy was fire, so they would know if it was allowed on the Shabbat.

Measuring hematocrit is simple and easy to do. Rumor has it athletes who engage in blood doping use it to check their outcomes. It thus appears that the groups using doping are indeed far ahead of the regulators in their adoption of scientific thinking and the scientific method.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

In re Contador

Yesterday the Spanish Federation announced its verdict in re Contador. Rather than provide closure the decision has already whipped up a storm of controversy in the community. So before I get into the heated discussions let me point you to a soothing Belgian treat that has no equal. Belgian Chocolate from Cachet. Take two squares of one of these and allow 20 minutes before reading on.

Cachet: excellent chocolate and exotic flavors

Yesterday I discovered an image that may shed light on the current status of professional cycling. This statue, appropriately displayed in front of the Kafka museum in Prague, summarizes the Kafka-esque nature of professional cycling. In it we see two figures, which we can think of as representing Schleck and Contador, performing the deciding act of cycle racing as we know it today.

The final sprint
I also want to show another image that represents the stance of many officials when it comes to dopers. These righteous individuals feel that we need to do everything in our power to save the poor cyclist's soul. Their mortal cycling bodies are corrupt and soaked in pharmaceuticals so forget about those and focus on what is truly important and pure. Not surprisingly this form of rescue originated in the Spanish enclave of Toledo.

Saving the soul
The Spanish Federation however, broke with history and tradition in more ways than one, and announced a novel, and some say too lenient sentence. That sentence is likely going to be appealed -possibly by both sides- so stay tuned. But for now it characterizes the ambivalent feeling that many have towards the discovery of minuscule amounts of a drug that is often found as contaminant in food. The Spanish Federation also announced it was suspending another, lesser known Spanish rider to a two year stint. This coincidentally simultaneous act underscores that they are serious and that -despite what some think- they take the Contador issue seriously.

In contrast to Spain's ambivalence, WADA's stance is that any amount of drug is doping. This stance, which in many ways predates the advent of modern pharmacology, where dose was found to be an important attribute for drugs, leaves no room for reasoning. It is clear and pure. Contador is guilty so he should burn.

Belgian cycling star Johan Museeuw, himself the recipient of a two year ban, feels that Contador should either get two years or nothing.  

Famed Belgian sports journalist Hans Vandeweghe disagrees. He thinks doping should not be treated differently from any other offense, thereby displaying some basic understanding of modern legislative thinking and at the same time proving that McQuaid was right when he said lawyers are sinking the sport. Further evidence of distorted thinking includes the statement Vandeweghe made, where he said he thinks Keisse should be free also.

But it is the following twisted statement that will be remembered for sure. Vandeweghe said: for example, if this were handled in a court of law, Lance Armstrong -you probably know that any mention of cycling needs to bring in Lance- would be found guilty on plenty of circumstantial and witness evidence, whereas Contador, based on weak and unconvincing evidence would walk. 

Those are fighting words, especially in the land of OJ Simpson and Barry Bonds and so it is no wonder that some American cyclists think that Belgium is just a wretched, country sized landfill. And if it weren't for cycling, it should just be burned to save everyone's soul. Bye chocolate and beer!

Belgium, as seen from Idaho

Either way, it now appears Shleck will join none other than Spanish star Oscar Pereiro in bringing home the victory in the lab. No word yet on whether the LAY-opar rider will dump his bike and pick up soccer. Presumably not before he takes the Tour de France victory that was just handed to him (and I am not talking 2010).

Contador on the other hand will join the ranks of defrocked winners such as evil Floyd and his current team boss Bjarne Riis.

Added later:
Contador will appeal the verdict. This was fully expected and I want to add that many in the sports community, including journalist Vandeweghe mentioned above believe that if Contador does not appeal, it means he has something to hide. 

Monday, January 24, 2011

Cross purposes

The Belgian cyclocross selection for Sankt Wendel is off to a bad start. First Vantornout complained about Sven Nys' behavior last year. Then Nys replied essentially saying he did nothing wrong by going after his teammate and bringing (the eventual champion) Stybar along. Nys added he did not want to give up his chances in lap 2. Now Niels Albert threw some more oil on the fire by saying, "I will ride my own race."

Favorite Niels Albert, there is apparently an I in team after all


Finally national coach Rudy De Bie had to step in to calm the waters. "We will have to sit the team down together this week," he said, "but not to preach, that is pointless." Instead De Bie, who says he understands the realities of sponsorship wants to remind the team members that it is the Belgian public that is ultimately paying their bills. Without the massive public support of Belgian fans, who show up in droves week after week, there would be no cyclocross.

Rudy De Bie: more headaches?

And in more high profile news, Lance made a rather low profile exit this week. He finished the Tour Down Under in the middle of the pack. One day Lance was part of a breakaway but he was outsprinted at the end. Although he clearly tried, he did not manage to capture much headlines, other than the new Sports Illustrated allegations regarding doping. He did woo the Australian public by going on an impromptu "Twitter" ride in Brisbane to benefit the flood victims.

All this bad publicity put Lance in a subdued mood. He refused to address the press after the final stage in Adelaide, where he was sure to be confronted with more doping questions. He did attend the closing ceremony though, where he was given a pair of walking boots.

Armstrong also bailed out of Ironman and the chances of seeing him compete in Kona this year appear slim to nil. In a brief chat with cyclingnews the former Tour de France winner conceded that he does not know what he will do next.

No more wetsuit for me..
Meanwhile the weather here in the San Francisco bay area continues to be spectacular. With temperatures in the mid to high sixties (some areas well into the seventies) and plenty of sunshine there is no better place to be for spring training. While the rest of the country and much of Europe continues to shovel snow, we are enjoying our new weather pattern tremendously-- although it may wreak havoc on our ongoing water supplies. Bike riders and runners are out in force this year. Hopefully the weather will stay good and we will not see a repeat of previous year's Tour of California weather.

The only two deciduous trees close to our house
The trees are as confused with this new pattern as we are. Of the only two deciduous trees near my house, one is full Fall colors while the other is nearing the end of winter and getting ready for Spring.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Bombshell

Good old Floyd tried to make more headlines today by declaring that we should just legalize doping. While  that statement is unlikely to gain much support or credibility, and is assured to further malign his name, there are a few interesting observations to be made. First, Floyd said, "It is just like guns, they are there and there is nothing you can do about it."  Second he claimed, "doping controllers lag so far behind developers that they will never catch them." He went on to say that EPO use was virtually  undetectable and that one "had to be an idiot to get caught using it." Finally, he added that the situation "will only be worse 10 years from now."

Drugs, vitamins and supplements

I want to remark that from a psychological perspective the link to guns is fascinating. Both guns and drugs (of which doping is a subset) are highly emotionally charged, and polarizing subjects. We only need to add abortion (which is a stand-in for free sex) to complete the trinity. Not surprisingly all three categories have sexual overtones.

These are not topics people debate in a calm manner or on a rational level. These are issues people have strong feelings about, and if you disagree with those feelings, they are very likely to unfriend you rather quickly. Nevertheless I think it would be worthwhile to try and have a rational discussion.

Merely expressing the fact that there might be some truth to what Floyd said is enough to discredit a person in the eyes of many, so I am walking a fine line here. Yet there is no denying reality and those who do so, will sooner or later pay the price.

Dark side of the moon

In any case, I have already said as much earlier by stating -and this is not my opinion, but rather a conclusion based on facts- that phony wars rarely, if ever, achieve their goals. They are ineffective, costly to society and give rise to other problems. The war on drugs is certainly no exception. The reason why people choose to initiate and fight those wars is often much more complex than it appears.

In many cases, a profound fear lies at the bottom of such wars but this fear is never expressed or mentioned. The drug war for example is very likely based on a fear of losing control (over one's mind). It is a modern version of the war on witchcraft and magic. Many people treat drug addicts as possessed by evil spirits/the devil or even think of them that way.  So it is not surprising that the war on drugs shows similarities with the inquisition.


The war on doping has another overtone: that of purity. Sports is in many ways a modern form of chivalry. It is closely linked to real warfare and so the mention of guns is not entirely gratuitous.

When it comes to understanding the war on doping in sport the first thing one has to do is examine one's motives. While the obvious motive -and the one people always put forth- is cheating, it is highly doubtful that cheating is the key issue. If it were the solution would be rather trivial. And not only that, it would be rather easy to remove doping from sport by providing the right incentives. But cheating is not what bothers people. The idea of doping is linked to the idea of "purity" or "virginity" and the doping battle is a battle for "the purity of the sport." The religious overtones are so obvious that most people fail to see them.


If cheating were the issue, one would have simple rules that are based on advantage gained and the mechanism by which the advantage is gained. All of that is easy to do. Rather than making lists of forbidden fruit or using tests to detect forbidden fruit, one would just measure the physiological parameters that are known to affect performance. One would then calculate the advantage gained and institute a simple penalty (a time penalty) to nullify the effect. The end result would be a serious disincentive to use doping and doping use would be reduced or disappear.

Take the most effective form of doping, i.e. the one that increases the level of red blood cells. (Mind you I am not saying this is proven to be effective, esp. in the long run, but so be it). This form of doping also happens to be the hardest to detect. The list includes high altitude training, oxygen tents, -I know technically these are not considered doping, further evidence of irrational thinking by the way, but they are on par with it- blood doping, EPO, CERA, testosterone, and whatever other compounds or methods people may discover in the future. Rather than going on a wild goose chase to detect these substances or their metabolites, let people use whatever they like as long as (and this is the catch) their red blood cell level, or hematocrit, stays below a certain value.

Hematocrit, you can do it in your kitchen

I am willing to bet this approach would work wonders. First of all it is easy to test hematocrit. It can be done in 5 minutes, and only requires a simple pin prick and a centrifuge. One could test all the riders before the race and before the promenade was over one would know all the results. One could then apply time penalties in proportion to the % excess. The correction factors could be worked into the final results and these would be available within minutes of the finish. There would be no delays, no recalls after months or years and no arguing or lawyering (lawyers we all know destroy the sport).

Furthermore the incentives are right because they address performance issues and cheating on performance is what we want to stop.

Riders who consistently overshoot would know better than to keep doing whatever it is they are doing. They would quickly learn that it does not pay off.

Similar tests could be developed for all commonly used forms of performance enhancement. One could measure muscle mass for example and set limits. We have weight limits on bikes so why not have limits on muscle mass?

In short, these issues are easy to remedy as long as we are clear as to what it is we want to fix.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Revelations

The cycling world woke up to two revelations today. The first, in re Contador, as the lawyers (who are out to destroy cycling) would say, is the report that a decision will be announced within 10 days. I say announced because, going by the earlier LAY-o-par Schleck report, it appears to have already been made. Watching these doping cases unfold is about as exciting and predictable as following a Chinese court case.

The new frontier


The second revelation is that Sports Illustrated, no doubt one of the best selling sports magazines out there, but one that does not cover real sports such as soccer or cycling, is printing a whole bunch of new allegations in re Armstrong. That case, as some of you may know is winding its way through the courts. It is something most people would rather forget about. Fortunately for them, it is also unlikely to go anywhere.

I have to say though that seeing these former friends and team mates so intimately united in separate newscasts that nonetheless deal with the same issue, it feels like the good old days.

Buddies in arms

And speaking of phony wars, yesterday Robert Sargent Shriver, founder of the Peace Corps, and father of the former California First Lady, died at 95. Mr Shriver was spearheading the war on poverty, an endeavor launched in the 60's that is about as successful as the war on drugs. Or the war on cancer for that matter. To say nothing about the war on terror.

I have no doubt that Mr. Shriver was well-meaning and honorable man who deserves every accolade he is given, but how he let himself be talked into a phony war is beyond me. But then again, according to some bankers at least, the poor are really better off today. There may be more of them now, but they all have a house, an SUV and a flat screen TV, so why worry?

Today is also the day the House will vote to repeal the HealthCare Reform law of 2010. Since that law has only been partly implemented and only for a few months -the main parts of it won't take effect until 2014- we are witnessing a historic event. Let nobody accuse Washington of being out of touch with the people. These law makers are on the ball, always ready to repeal things that don't work before it is too late.

Only one covered track in Flanders

Belgian riders meanwhile learned that there won't be second covered velodrome in Flanders any time soon. That is what the sports minister Phillippe Muyters said yesterday. There are currently seven open air velodromes and one covered track (Wielercentrum Eddy Merckx in Ghent) in an area half the size of Maryland. This obvious shortage has many people up in arms and calling for action. Het Wielercentrum  is now forced to limit the number of riders on the track to about 100 at any given time. That is about the entire northern California track population!


The Sunweb manager is clearly upset with van Kasteren's revelations

The cyclocross world is also reeling. This after Hans van Kasteren, leader of team Telenet-Fidea made some snide comments about Kevin Pauwels. That did not sit well with Jurgen Mettepenningen, manager of Sunweb-Revor and future boss of Pauwels. Next season Pauwels will transfer to Sunweb. Jurgen feels that Hans may be "a liar and a dishonest person," but "he should not trash the character of a rider in the press." There have to be limits somewhere.